Connecticut rail policy: the next four years
Slowly but surely, Connecticut is rebuilding its rail system. The newly opened Hartford Line has been a success, to the point that some trains run crowded enough to keep people […]
Spanish Disaffection with the EU: is Podemos Eurosceptic?
After Brexit, the discontent of some Europeans towards the collective project of the European Union (EU) has become apparent. However, the British are not the only ones that seemingly have […]
How Trump could fail
Remember what happened in 2004/2005? The Republicans won that election. Bush was re-elected narrowly but solidly; they gained seats in the house and had a narrow majority in the Senate. […]
Caution, rigor, luck and succesful predictions
Six months ago, as the results from the election were made public, I published a piece that contained several explicit predictions. As time stands, two of them have already been […]
Independence and the parties that want it: the UKIP and the SNP in a ‘Brexit’ Britain
Next week, on 23 June, British voters will go to the polls to make the biggest decision of a generation: the United Kingdom’s continued membership of the European Union (i.e. […]
Prediction market shows highest probability for PSOE-Podemos and PP-Ciudadanos government
From today on Politikon publishes live forecasts about the composition of the next Spanish government (see the graph below). The data stem for a prediction market, which I conduct together […]
What Merkel’s rhetoric can tell us about her approach to the refugee crisis
Many observers of German politics were surprised and puzzled by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s approach to the huge influx of refugees. Angela Merkel was not known to “lead” public opinion, […]
The rise of Trump, and why explicit racism is bad news
In her article Saturday about Donald Trump, Jenée Desmond-Harris welcomes the fact that the presidential candidate has brought race and racism to the foreground. Trump’s bigoted rhetoric has made explicit what […]
Podemos + IU: the form matters
As we draw closer to the May 2nd deadline and the scenario of electoral repetition becomes more probable, rumors about a possible combined candidacy of Podemos and IU have grown […]
Girls don’t like computers
During the last year we have seen that the media has started to pay attention to a global phenomenon that is not new at all: the number of women in […]
Government in a standstill
The parties are preparing themselves for May 2nd, the moment when the legislature is automatically dissolved. The severity of the reproaches and the determined negotiation strategies indicate that the probability […]
The legislative clock: the card game
Time to a hardcore game theory article, with a focus on the gaming side. This comes from a slightly demented/genius (not sure which one applies) idea I have been testing for […]