Caution, rigor, luck and succesful predictions

Luis Abenza - 30 d junio d 2016

Six months ago, as the results from the election were made public, I published a piece that contained several explicit predictions. As time stands, two of them have already been […]

Independence and the parties that want it: the UKIP and the SNP in a ‘Brexit’ Britain

Laura MacKenzie - 22 d junio d 2016

Next week, on 23 June, British voters will go to the polls to make the biggest decision of a generation: the United Kingdom’s continued membership of the European Union (i.e. […]

Prediction market shows highest probability for PSOE-Podemos and PP-Ciudadanos government

Oliver Strijbis - 15 d junio d 2016

From today on Politikon publishes live forecasts about the composition of the next Spanish government (see the graph below). The data stem for a prediction market, which I conduct together […]

What Merkel’s rhetoric can tell us about her approach to the refugee crisis

Daniel Bischof - 25 d mayo d 2016

Many observers of German politics were surprised and puzzled by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s approach to the huge influx of refugees. Angela Merkel was not known to “lead” public opinion, […]

The rise of Trump, and why explicit racism is bad news

Roger Senserrich - 2 d mayo d 2016

In her article Saturday about Donald Trump, Jenée Desmond-Harris welcomes the fact that the presidential candidate has brought race and racism to the foreground. Trump’s bigoted rhetoric has made explicit what […]

Podemos + IU: the form matters

Jorge Galindo - 22 d abril d 2016

As we draw closer to the May 2nd deadline and the scenario of electoral repetition becomes more probable, rumors about a possible combined candidacy of Podemos and IU have grown […]

Girls don’t like computers

Sabela Ramos - 15 d abril d 2016

During the last year we have seen that the media has started to pay attention to a global phenomenon that is not new at all: the number of women in […]

Government in a standstill

Pablo Simón - 12 d abril d 2016

The parties are preparing themselves for May 2nd, the moment when the legislature is automatically dissolved. The severity of the reproaches and the determined negotiation strategies indicate that the probability […]

The legislative clock: the card game

Roger Senserrich - 30 d marzo d 2016

Time to a hardcore game theory article, with a focus on the gaming side. This comes from a slightly demented/genius (not sure which one applies) idea I have been testing for […]

The Three Souls of Podemos

Jorge Galindo - 25 d febrero d 2016

Five days ago, the negotiators of Podemos and PSOE gathered for the first time, accompanied by representatives from similar ideological forces. The base document for the negotiations presented by Podemos is […]

Flexible work arrangements and their impact on work-family balance

Luis Cornago - 4 d febrero d 2016

In the last twenty years several influential texts have pointed out the change in contractual relationships that has occurred in the contemporary workplace. Authors like Sennet (2001), Beck (2000) or […]

Spain is not Denmark (in yet another sense)

Luis Abenza - 29 d diciembre d 2015

Spain and the strategic dilemma of coalition government Since its transition to democracy in 1978, Spain has not had a single coalition government. This, together with the distance between the […]